In a new climate projection from the Ministry of Climate, it appears that Denmark is on track to meet its 2030 climate target, but experts warn that there are still significant uncertainties associated with the new calculation methods. According to the projection, Denmark will have reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 68 percent in 2030 compared to 1990 levels, which is close to the target of a 70 percent reduction. Karsten Capion, senior analyst at the green think tank Concito, points out that a significant part of the expected reductions are due to changes in how emissions from agriculture’s wetlands and forests’ CO2 uptake are calculated. “These are figures where the researchers have pointed out very large uncertainties. We should be cautious in assuming that we are almost there,” he says. Capion emphasizes the need for a more structural transformation in all sectors, actively removing or changing polluting sources to more climate-friendly alternatives. This will reduce the risk that future updates to the calculation methods will show us further from reaching the climate goals than we thought. However, the outlook is more promising in the transport sector. The Ministry of Climate’s projection indicates a significant increase in the number of electric vehicles, expected to reduce CO2 emissions by around two million tons compared to previous assessments. “It is a clear sign that a structural transformation is underway, leading to lasting and secure reductions,” says Capion, adding that similar measures are necessary in agriculture and other sectors. This development shows that while there are positive steps towards a greener future, it is important to remain critical and attentive to the methods used to assess progress.

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