The German-French engine in the EU is facing major challenges if the latest polling holds true. Both the German and French governments risk becoming “lame ducks” – a term for governments on their way out of power. This is the assessment of Lykke Friis, director at Think Tank Europe. Lykke Friis points out that both German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron are facing significant political challenges following the recent elections.
Scholz’s Social Democrats appear to be the third largest party, while the conservatives and the right-wing Alternative for Germany receive the most votes. This could make it difficult for Scholz to maintain his political agenda both nationally and within the EU. In France, Macron is also facing a major defeat. According to the polling, Marine Le Pen’s far-right party seems to be getting around 32 percent of the votes, which is a 10 percent increase from the last EU election. This places Le Pen’s party far ahead of Macron’s.
These challenges for the two largest EU countries could have significant consequences for the future of the EU. Germany and France play a central role in appointing new leaders in the European Commission and the EU President, as well as in determining the EU’s political agenda. Lykke Friis highlights that the German-French engine in the EU seems to need some maintenance. Macron’s decision to call for parliamentary elections and Scholz’s election defeat point towards a weakening of their leadership in Europe. This could impact the EU’s ability to address current challenges and set new political goals.
The war in Ukraine has also had a significant impact on Germany, which has been hit hard economically. Germany’s energy dependence on Russia has exposed the country’s vulnerabilities, and both businesses and private economies are suffering from the consequences. This could mean that Germany will focus more on national problems in the future than on European ones. However, the final election result has not yet been announced and it could change. The official results are expected to be released after 23:00 on Sunday when the last polling stations in Europe close.