The German government is facing a weakeness that could have consequences for the entire EU if the first exit polls from Germany turn out to be accurate. According to Lykke Friis, director of Think Tank Europa, Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is only projected to achieve third place after the conservatives and the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). This result would be a significant defeat and could turn Scholz’s government into a “lame duck” – a term often used to describe governments or politicians on their way out of power.
The election forecasts indicate that all three government parties are declining. Scholz’s coalition partners, The Greens, are projected to receive between 12 and 12.5 percent of the votes, while the liberal FDP is expected to receive around 5 percent. This weak result could make it difficult for Germany to maintain its leading role in the EU. Scholz is already facing several challenging state elections, and a weakened mandate will make it difficult for him to shape the European agenda.
The so-called German-French engine, which traditionally has driven the EU forward, is now at risk of stalling. Friis notes that this cooperative dynamic between Germany and France is already under pressure and could worsen further. At the same time, French President Emmanuel Macron is also facing challenges.
According to the first exit polls from France, Marine Le Pen’s right-wing party is projected to receive around 32 percent of the votes, which marks a significant increase. This positions her party as a strong candidate for the 2027 presidential election. The overall situation in Europe’s two largest countries could therefore pose a serious challenge for the entire EU.
Germany has already been heavily impacted by the war in Ukraine, which has exposed the country’s energy dependence on Russia. This situation has negatively affected both the business sector and the ordinary German economy, reducing Germany’s ability and willingness to address European problems on its own.
Lykke Friis warns that Germany could become more inward-looking, which could have consequences for European cooperation. Although the exit polls are not final and the results will only be announced after 23.00, they provide a clear indication of a weakened German government and a potential crisis in the EU.