New challenges for municipal institutions and building plans due to declining birth rates
A new projection from Statistics Denmark shows that 94 out of the country’s 98 municipalities will have fewer children aged zero to six in 2035 than previously estimated. This could have far-reaching consequences for both construction projects and parents’ ability to secure their first-choice institutions. A calculation by the Danish Chamber of Commerce based on Statistics Denmark’s data indicates that approximately half of the municipalities will experience a decrease of over 10 percent in the number of children by 2035. Dragør Municipality is among the most affected, facing a 21 percent decrease. Mayor Kenneth Gøtterup (Conservative Party) states that this decline will have noticeable effects on the municipality’s institutions. “We should discuss whether to close an institution, but we have chosen not to do so – we simply have more space instead. We hope that the declining birth rate is temporary,” he told Politiken.
Skanderborg Municipality also faces significant challenges with an 18 percent decrease. Chair of the Children and Youth Committee, Trine Frengler (Social Democrats), shares that this is the first time she has witnessed such a decline in birth rates as a politician. This has already led to a halt in the construction of new institutions that were supposed to begin in three years. Copenhagen has the largest decrease in numbers, with an expectation of 8120 fewer children in 2035 than previously estimated.
This trend is part of a larger pattern where Danish women are expected to have significantly fewer children by 2030. This could have major economic consequences, warns Chief Economist at the Danish Chamber of Commerce, Tore Stramer. “With fewer children, there will be fewer expenses in the public sector for institutions, schools, and so on,” he stated. At the same time, data from Statistics Denmark shows that the proportion of people over the age of 80 will significantly increase in the coming years. As of 2024, this age group made up five percent of the population, but by 2047, it is expected to rise to ten percent. This shift in age composition will also mean fewer people in the working age population in the long term.