The employment in agriculture is already declining – the CO2 tax will only remove a small part. A new analysis from Greenpeace shows that employment in agriculture is already decreasing, and a future CO2 tax will only have a marginal effect on job losses. According to data from, among others, the Danish Agency for Labour Market and Recruitment and Statistics Denmark, agriculture has lost 25,000 jobs over the last 20 years, equivalent to around 15,000 full-time positions. This decline is mainly due to structural changes in the sector, which are expected to continue to remove another 6,000 jobs in the current decade.
The proposed CO2 tax by the green tripartite group is expected to only result in a loss of between 2,000 and 3,000 jobs in agriculture and related industries by 2035. Christian Fromberg, campaign leader for agriculture, nature, and forestry at Greenpeace, therefore believes that the fear of the impact of the CO2 tax on employment is exaggerated.
“The CO2 tax has been presented as a major threat, but it is the general development in agriculture that leads to job losses and crisis. The tax will only have a minor impact,” says Fromberg. He highlights that even though jobs are lost, agricultural production can be maintained through increased economies of scale. This indicates that the CO2 tax will not threaten food supply or the labor market to the extent that has been feared.
An important part of the jobs lost with the introduction of a CO2 tax are occupied by foreign labor in low-wage positions. According to Fromberg, this will therefore not have a decisive impact on the overall employment level in Denmark. “We do not have the same obligation to preserve jobs for foreign workers as for Danish citizens,” he states.
The Greenpeace analysis thus concludes that a CO2 tax will not be a significant threat to employment in agriculture, but rather a small piece in a larger puzzle of structural changes and challenges that the sector is facing.