Palestinian factions signed an agreement on “national unity” in Beijing on Tuesday, raising both hope and skepticism about whether the rival groups can overcome their ideological differences and bitter history to push for an end to Israel’s occupation. The agreement came after three days of intense negotiations aimed at establishing a temporary “national reconciliation government” that would take control of Gaza following the war and promote a joint effort toward self-determination.
While this breakthrough may provide some optimism, there is also significant doubt due to previous failed reconciliation attempts between Fatah and Hamas. “A dose of skepticism is justified, but I am optimistic that this agreement will hold,” said Omar Rahman, an expert on Israel-Palestine relations at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs in Doha, Qatar. Rahman explained that the pressure for the agreement to succeed is greater given the current context in Gaza and the West Bank. “I think all parties know that this has to happen,” he said.
Since a Hamas-led attack on Israeli communities and military sites on October 7, which resulted in 1,139 deaths and 251 hostages taken, Israel has responded with massive airstrikes on Gaza, which UN experts have described as potential genocide. Over the past nine months, Israel has killed more than 39,000 Palestinians and displaced nearly all of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents.
As Israel has intensified its occupation, the two largest Palestinian factions, Fatah and Hamas, have been divided. Fatah controls most of the West Bank through the Palestinian Authority (PA), while Hamas has governed Gaza since 2007. Despite their violent history, both sides have now signed an agreement with 12 smaller factions in Beijing, aimed at establishing a Palestinian state in Israeli-occupied East Jerusalem, the broader West Bank, and Gaza.
Tahani Mustafa, an expert at the International Crisis Group, points out that Fatah and PA leader Mahmoud Abbas have undermined previous reconciliation agreements with Hamas and have not demonstrated the political will to unify Palestinian leadership in challenging Israel’s occupation. “Fatah fears losing its power if Hamas and other factions are represented,” she noted.
Israel and the United States may also attempt to undermine the agreement. Israel has refused to allow the PA or Hamas to take control of Gaza in a post-war situation, while the U.S. has long insisted that Hamas recognize Israel and renounce violence before it can participate in a Palestinian government.
Although past reconciliation agreements have often collapsed, Rahman believes it is essential for this agreement to succeed. He points out that international attitudes toward the Israel-Palestine conflict are changing, allowing for a united Palestinian leadership to advocate for an end to the “genocide” in Gaza and Israel’s “annexation” of the West Bank.
The International Court of Justice recently declared that Israel’s 57-year occupation of East Jerusalem, the West Bank, and Gaza is “illegal,” increasing pressure on the international community. However, the agreement still lacks support from the U.S., which has expressed skepticism toward any involvement from Hamas. “There cannot be a role for a terrorist organization,” said a spokesperson for the U.S. State Department.
It remains to be seen how this new agreement will affect the Palestinian struggle for self-determination in light of ongoing international tensions and local political realities.