Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited Beijing from July 23 to July 24, where he held what he described as “very deep and concentrated” discussions with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi. This marks the first time Ukraine has approached China as a mediator in the conflict with Russia since Moscow’s invasion of the neighboring country in February 2022.
Kuleba’s visit occurred amidst a significant diplomatic effort from Ukraine aimed at preparing favorable international conditions for direct negotiations with the Kremlin. He revealed that Ukraine is ready to engage “when Russia is prepared to negotiate in good faith,” but added that “no such clarity has currently been observed from the Russian side.” Wang confirmed that “the conditions and timing are not yet mature.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far demanded that Kyiv surrender the four regions of Ukraine that his military partially occupies as a prerequisite for a ceasefire and negotiations. He also insists that Ukraine pledge never to join NATO and reduce the strength of its armed forces.
Over 80 countries have joined Ukraine in demanding that Russia respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as the foundation for peace negotiations during a conference held in Switzerland last month. Ukraine plans to hold another peace conference this year and is simultaneously submitting proposals regarding food security, energy, and the exchange of prisoners of war for a vote in the United Nations General Assembly as part of efforts to ensure global support before negotiations with Russia.
Furthermore, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he would meet with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is seeking reelection in November. “We agreed to discuss what can make peace fair and genuinely lasting,” he wrote on X (formerly Twitter). Trump is against military assistance to Ukraine and has previously stated that he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected.
Part of Ukraine’s peace initiative is also driven by a visible fatigue among its allies. The U.S. Congress has delayed a vote on a $60 billion military aid package for six months due to political disagreements.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskii noted that Russia has 520,000 soldiers on the ground—at least 50,000 more than last year—and plans to increase this number to 690,000 by the end of the year. Russian forces continue to hold a significant advantage in equipment over Ukrainian forces.
Although Ukraine is currently able to hold the front lines, Russia has made minimal territorial gains this year, but at a high cost in terms of lives and equipment. However, as Zelenskyy noted, the war aims have not changed, and he remains open to pursuing diplomatic solutions wherever possible.
Reports indicate marginal progress from Russian forces on the eastern and southern fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region. Kuleba and Zelenskyy continue to seek support from the international community, hoping to bring Russia to the negotiating table.
Tensions between Ukraine and Hungary have risen as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has also visited Beijing as part of a peace mission that Ukraine and its allies have criticized. This has led Ukraine to shut down the Druzhba pipeline, which transports Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia.
Zelenskyy is now urging his Western allies to allow Ukraine to strike air bases in Russia that are used to carry out bombing raids on Ukrainian cities. He believes that removing restrictions on the use of effective weapons will help press Russia towards peace.
It appears that Ukraine is facing a complex situation where both military realities and international diplomatic efforts play a role in the struggle to find a pathway to peace.