On Sunday, voters in Venezuela will participate in what could be one of the most significant elections in the country’s modern history. President Nicolas Maduro, who has been in power for 11 years, faces substantial challenges as he seeks to secure a third term against opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia. However, polls indicate that Maduro is trailing Gonzalez by nearly 40 percentage points, as voters express fatigue over Venezuela’s economic crisis and political repression.
Critics question whether Maduro would accept defeat if he were to be beaten in the election. The socialist leader has been accused of abusing his power to suppress potential rivals by arresting some and disqualifying others from running. The election is scheduled for July 28, coinciding with the late President Hugo Chavez’s birthday, who was also Maduro’s mentor.
According to polling firm ORC Consultores, Maduro has 12.5 percent support, while Gonzalez enjoys 59.6 percent. Another survey conducted by Delphos and the Andrés Bello Catholic University shows a slightly higher approval rating for Maduro at around 25 percent, but he remains significantly behind Gonzalez.
Venezuela’s economic crisis has been severe since the mid-2010s when prices for the country’s primary export, oil, plummeted. This has resulted in hyperinflation and serious economic difficulties, leading millions to leave the country in search of better prospects. According to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), more than 7.7 million Venezuelans have fled the country since 2014, marking one of the largest mass displacements in modern history.
At 61 years old, Maduro represents the United Socialist Party and aims to continue Chavez’s legacy through social programs for the poor and an antagonistic stance towards the United States. On the other side stands the opposition, which identifies itself as the Unitary Platform coalition, united in the goal of ending Maduro’s rule and improving relations with the West. Gonzalez, a 74-year-old former diplomat, represents the opposition on the ballot.
It is notable that the opposition largely boycotted the 2018 election in protest against what they considered a biased electoral system. Although Gonzalez is now running, he was not one of the first choices from the opposition. Popular opposition figure Maria Corina Machado was prevented from running, along with others who sought to replace her.
There is deep concern regarding what might happen if Maduro were to be defeated. Many fear he could declare himself the winner or resort to harsher measures to remain in power. Political researcher Will Freeman describes Venezuela as “competitively authoritarian,” where elections occur under severely dysfunctional conditions.
While Western countries, particularly the United States, have criticized the Venezuelan government’s repressive actions, there are signs that the U.S. might consider softening its stance after years of tensions. Reactions to the current situation indicate that Venezuela is at a crossroads regarding its future and its relationship with the international community.