Three days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered a speech in the Bundestag, Germany’s federal parliament, marking a significant shift in the country’s foreign policy. He called for immediate military support for Ukraine, economic sanctions against Russia, and a revitalization of Germany’s underfunded armed forces through a special fund of 100 billion euros. Scholz described the situation as a “turning point” that would change the global order. This speech, known as ‘Zeitenwende’—a German term meaning “epoch-making change”—received mixed reactions from the German public and experts.

Two and a half years later, Germans remain divided on the issue. Some criticize Scholz for failing to fulfill his ambitious commitments, claiming that there has been no real Zeitenwende in Germany. Benjamin Tallis, an expert in international relations at the Center for Liberal Modernity, stated that there has been no significant strategic transformation to meet Germany’s security responsibilities. He referred to the current policy as ‘Slightenwende’, indicating a slight change rather than a profound one, and pointed out that the initial panic that prompted the speech never translated into action.

In contrast, Tobias Cremer, a Member of the European Parliament from the ruling Social Democratic Party, argued that Zeitenwende is a process that is still ongoing. Germany is now on track to reach the NATO-recommended defense spending level of 2% of GDP, a target previously not achieved.

However, critics emphasize that Germany has been hesitant in its support for Ukraine. Although the country has contributed 14.6 billion euros in humanitarian aid, it ranks 15th among Western military alliances in terms of military spending as a share of its economy. This discrepancy is particularly noted when comparing Germany to smaller economies like Estonia and Denmark, which have contributed more as a percentage of their GDP.

Despite these concerns, the German population has largely remained supportive of Ukraine, with many considering Russia a direct threat to their security. Surveys from 2022 indicated that over 60% of Germans believed that Russia posed a threat to Germany.

Ironically, the German government has recently approved a budget that halves support for Ukraine and fails to provide the anticipated increase in the defense budget, raising concerns among Baltic and Nordic countries. Timo Graf, a senior researcher at the Bundeswehr Center for Military History, pointed out that the necessary political thinking regarding Germany’s role is lacking. It will be a test for Germany whether it will accept a leadership role among its NATO allies.

These challenges have led experts to call for Germany to adapt to the changing security landscape in Europe and take on more responsibility, as the Baltic states are already urging action without waiting for Germany.