Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently stated that armed insurgency in the Indian-administered region of Kashmir is in its “final stages” due to his government’s “multi-faceted” strategy. This approach was initiated following the revocation of the region’s special status five years ago. However, these claims have been significantly challenged by a series of attacks and fatalities among Indian soldiers in the area.
On July 6, two Indian soldiers and four suspected militants were killed in two separate firefights in the Kulgam district. Two days later, five soldiers lost their lives when suspected insurgents attacked a military vehicle in the Kathua district. So far this year, at least 16 Indian soldiers and police officers have been killed in various attacks in Kashmir, with more than half occurring in the Jammu district.
Jammu, typically known for its relative peace, has witnessed a surge in violence, raising concerns among local residents. Muhammad Sultan, a 55-year-old farmer, expressed his fears: “All these attacks have created tension and unease throughout the region.” Another local, Shamsheer Singh, added, “We lock ourselves in our homes before sunset. We’ve never felt this scared.”
Particular attention has been drawn to the changing dynamics of the violence. According to experts, the increasing violence in Jammu, described as a “new wave of militancy,” represents a shift from previous patterns not seen during the 35 years of unrest. Zafar Choudhary, a political analyst in Jammu, notes that “guerrilla-trained militants strike with a high element of surprise.” Recent attacks suggest that insurgent groups are attempting to signal that the conflict is far from over, despite claims made by the Indian government.
Defense analyst Pravin Sawhney describes the situation as serious, pointing out that it is the insurgents who initiate attacks in the Jammu region: “They choose the time, place, and scale of the attack. The Indian army merely responds to what intelligence they receive.”
It is not only military units that are affected; local communities are directly impacted. Following recent attacks, the government has revived the Village Defence Guards (VDGs), a civilian militia originally established to combat militants in the Jammu area. The VDGs have a history of cooperating with Indian security forces, but the significant disruptions in trust between the military and local communities — marred by experiences of violence — may undermine this support.
Critics also point to the political decisions made by the Indian government, particularly the cancellation of Kashmir’s special status in 2019, which was intended to bring economic prosperity but has instead led to increased violence. Maleeha Lodhi, a former Pakistani ambassador, emphasized that the conflict is an internationally recognized dispute and cannot be resolved through force.
As the Kashmir conflict evolves, Jammu is facing growing insecurity. Local leaders and experts warn that the current situation may lead to a more unstable environment, resulting in more attacks and a greater need for military presence, which threatens the peace the region has previously known.
It will be essential for the Indian government to reconsider its approach to prevent further escalation of violence and to restore trust in the region.