Russia’s recent prisoner exchange, which involved the transfer of 16 individuals to the United States, is viewed as both a strategic and tactical decision. At the heart of this exchange are two prominent critics of President Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Kara-Murza and Ilya Yashin. According to Flemming Splidsboel Hansen, a senior researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS) and an expert on Russia, this outflow of dissidents largely serves the interests of the Kremlin.

Putin’s regime appears to have shifted its strategy since the days of the Soviet Union. Instead of keeping opposition politicians imprisoned within Russia, the government seems to find it less problematic to allow them to speak out from Western countries. According to Splidsboel, the reasoning is straightforward: Dissidents imprisoned in Russia have the potential to incite national unrest and inspire demonstrations.

“They want to rid themselves of these individuals. The Russian government is clearly interested in having them leave the country,” Splidsboel states. He draws a parallel to the late opposition politician Alexei Navalny, who, despite the risks, chose to return to Russia after receiving treatment in Berlin for poisoning. Navalny understood that effective opposition necessitates a presence within Russia, a choice that ultimately cost him his life.

When criticism of Russia is voiced from abroad, it tends to lose credibility among the Russian populace, according to Splidsboel. The Putin regime is thus more comfortable with critics operating from the West, as they have limited influence on domestic public opinion outside of Russia. “Criticism coming from individuals outside the country holds no credibility with the Russians,” he emphasizes.

This dynamic implies that individuals like Kara-Murza may find themselves living comfortably in the U.S., but they are likely to rapidly lose their relevance in a Russian context. In addition to opposition politicians, the prisoner exchange also included two journalists and a former Marine. In return, Russia received eight inmates, including Vadim Krasikov, who was convicted of murder in Germany, and Mikhail Mikushin, identified as a Russian spy in Norway.

This prisoner exchange is the largest between Russia and the West since the Cold War and marks a new phase in diplomatic relations between the two parties, where human lives and political power once again play a central role.