Two days after Israel accused Lebanon’s Hezbollah of an attack that killed 12 people in the occupied Golan Heights, U.S. official John Kirby reiterated on Monday that the United States supports Israel. However, he emphasized that Washington still seeks regional de-escalation. “We believe there’s still time and space for a diplomatic solution,” Kirby stated. The focus now shifts to what Israel’s next steps will be and whether this will trigger a feared regional war. The U.S. has publicly declared that it does not wish for this scenario, even though it has sent troops to the Middle East in response to the attack on October 7 and the beginning of the war in Gaza, as support for Tel Aviv.

The Middle East and the rest of the world have repeatedly held their breath, particularly after Israel killed two Iranian generals at the Iranian consulate in Damascus in April, followed by an Iranian attack on Israel. Reports suggest that the U.S. has been working to prevent Israel from escalating the conflict and launching a full-scale attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been among the countries mediating a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, although many obstacles have arisen in recent months.

Following the bold assassination of Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran—an act for which the Palestinian group and Iran blame Israel—and the killing of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, it now appears that the U.S.’s goals for a ceasefire and regional de-escalation have been seriously compromised. Brian Finucane from the International Crisis Group pointed out that regional de-escalation would depend on a ceasefire in Gaza. “To avoid further escalation in the region, including the involvement of U.S. troops, a ceasefire in Gaza is crucial. It is necessary to calm the situation with the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah, as well as to maintain a pause in attacks on U.S. troops in Syria and Iraq,” Finucane said.

However, several experts believe that the U.S. could do more to achieve a ceasefire, especially in light of Israel having killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians. Raed Jarrar, director of advocacy at Democracy for the Arab World Now, criticized the U.S. approach: “We have not seen the U.S. press for de-escalation—the American policy contradicts its actions.” He added that the U.S. could have implemented principles of de-escalation and ceasefire by halting arms shipments to Israel.

After Haniyeh’s assassination, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the U.S. “was not aware of or involved in” the killing, which occurred just days after Netanyahu’s visit to the U.S. This raises questions about how the U.S. is perceived as a leader in the region, particularly when Israel seemingly ignores American goals for a ceasefire. Finucane noted that the U.S. faces a “fundamental dilemma,” as it has provided military support to Israel to deter Iran and its allies while also wanting to avoid regional escalation.

The U.S. now faces a tumultuous period as the country prepares for the presidential election. According to analysts, this uncertainty may play into Netanyahu’s hands, who could potentially exploit the situation ahead of a possible presidency under Kamala Harris, who may press Israel more forcefully to end the war. Jarrar concluded by pointing out that blind support for Israel since October 7 has negatively impacted the U.S.’s status in the region. “The U.S. has failed to show leadership,” he said. “The political capital that the U.S. had in the region has eroded over the years, especially since the Iraq War.”