Beirut, Lebanon – The recent assassinations of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and senior Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Lebanon may provide Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with an opportunity to regain support domestically, analysts suggest. However, this development poses risks to hopes for the release of Israeli hostages.
Hugh Lovatt, an expert on Israeli-Palestinian affairs at the European Council on Foreign Relations, stated, “The assassination of Haniyeh is a significant gain for Netanyahu’s political and security credibility. It is undoubtedly a political fact.” Internal unrest and divisions within Israel have become apparent after several months of protests against controversial judicial reforms implemented by Netanyahu’s government. Additionally, there is growing criticism of his failure to secure a ceasefire agreement with Hamas that could lead to the release of hostages.
This week, right-wing ministers and Knesset (Israeli Parliament) members expressed outrage over the arrest of soldiers accused of torturing and raping Palestinians. A group stormed the base where these soldiers were held. Tensions between Israel’s political and security leadership have also become more publicly pronounced.
The assassinations of Haniyeh and Shukr may give Netanyahu the chance to shift the narrative in Israel—at least temporarily, according to analysts. On July 30, Israel killed Shukr in a missile strike on his apartment in Dahiya, a suburb of Beirut. Shukr was a senior commander in Hezbollah and was described as a key figure in developing military strategies.
Israel cited the assassination as a response to an attack that killed 12 Druze children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights on July 27. Although Hezbollah denies responsibility, Israel justifies the killing by pointing fingers at the group. Hours after Shukr’s death, Haniyeh was killed while visiting Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new moderate president, Masoud Pezeshkian. While Israel has not officially claimed responsibility, both Iran and Hamas are considered accountable.
Analysts note that the recent killings have partially helped Israel’s military and political establishment rebuild their reputation following the devastating attack on October 7, which resulted in the deaths of 1,139 Israelis and the abduction of approximately 250. Ori Goldberg, a local expert on Israeli politics, observes that while many Israelis view the political assassinations as a “victory,” there are concerns about potential retaliatory attacks from Iran and its allies. “It’s as if Israelis are suffering from schizophrenia,” he says. “On one hand, they desire these actions for self-protection, but on the other hand, they fear the consequences.”
Israeli journalist Oren Ziv adds that the security forces have regained internal credibility through these assassinations. “The security forces wanted to demonstrate that they have regained control,” he states. Simultaneously, there is rising concern that these killings may complicate efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement, which many Israelis, including families of the hostages, desire. “The majority supports the killings, but some are worried about the timing,” Ziv adds.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris has also called for a ceasefire, urging all parties to reach an understanding that could lead to the release of Israeli and Palestinian hostages. This places Netanyahu’s political maneuvering under even sharper scrutiny, as his popularity has been under pressure since October.
Overall, the latest developments create a complex political landscape where issues of morality, strategy, and political survival vie for attention.