Monterrey, Mexico – On July 25, it was officially reported that two high-ranking members of the notorious Sinaloa Cartel in Mexico had been arrested in the United States. The 76-year-old Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, a co-founder of the cartel, and his 38-year-old associate Joaquin Guzman Lopez, the son of the infamous Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman, were detained at an airport near El Paso, Texas.

While the U.S. celebrates these arrests as a victory in the fight against cross-border smuggling, experts in Mexico fear that this situation may lead to a wave of instability both internationally and locally. Two weeks after the arrests, the circumstances surrounding them remain unclear. According to anonymous U.S. sources, Guzman Lopez allegedly lured Zambada onto a small propeller plane under the pretense of inspecting secret airstrips in northern Mexico. However, this was reportedly a trap, as Guzman Lopez intended to surrender to U.S. authorities and wanted to take Zambada with him.

Zambada’s attorney, Frank Perez, has denied this narrative, asserting that Guzman Lopez actually kidnapped his client. Both men have since pleaded not guilty to drug trafficking charges in U.S. court.

While the legal aspects surrounding Zambada’s transfer are of significant importance to the criminal charges, Falko Ernst, a senior security analyst at the International Crisis Group, points out that this situation could potentially harm cross-border relations between Mexico and the U.S. The Mexican government has expressed frustration over the surprise nature of the arrests.

“This can greatly undermine trust between the two countries regarding security cooperation,” said Ernst. “We will see to what extent Mexico will attempt to make it clear that they are not in favor of such actions.” Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and Security Minister Rosa Icela Rodriguez have already demanded that the U.S. clarify the circumstances of the arrests.

Furthermore, these arrests come at a time when the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Mexico is under strain. The U.S. is in the midst of an intense presidential election campaign, with immigration being a central issue. There are growing calls within the political sphere, particularly among Republicans, to implement military measures to confront the cartels.

Andres Villarreal, a journalist from Culiacan in Sinaloa, warns that the events of July 25 could escalate violence in specific regions of Mexico. He describes a tense silence in Sinaloa, where the arrests have turned the population upside down. “It is like the quiet period that comes after a storm—or before a storm,” he stated.

Iliana Padilla Reyes, a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México), notes that the cartel operates within a well-established structure marked by violence. She assesses that the removal of leaders of organized crime could lead to violent power struggles, resulting in even greater instability in the region.

The potential for internal strife within the cartel following Zambada’s arrest is also a risk factor. Speculation about who might take over is emerging, but it remains unclear how serious this could become. Villarreal emphasizes that the unrest following such arrests can affect the entire criminal structure both in Mexico and abroad.

Ernst explains that the repercussions of Zambada’s arrest are likely to have a global spread, as the Sinaloa Cartel has a significant presence in many countries. “Instability is a consequence of targeting high-profile drug lords without addressing the entire cartel structure,” he states.

Although Zambada was considered a central figure in the Sinaloa Cartel, Villarreal believes that his role will quickly be filled by another individual. “Right now, his name is Ismael; tomorrow it could be Andres, Juan, or Francisco. It will always be someone similar,” he declares.