Dan Jørgensen, currently serving as the Global Climate Minister for the Social Democrats (Socialdemokratiet), has been named the leading candidate to become Denmark’s next European Commissioner. However, if he is nominated, securing a significant role, such as Commissioner for Climate, may prove challenging. Senior Analyst Jacob Kirkegaard from the think tank German Marshall Fund assesses that larger countries and candidates with stronger credentials are likely to be prioritized.
According to Kirkegaard, Jørgensen’s chances of receiving an influential climate-related position are relatively slim. A strong contender for the role of Climate Commissioner is Spanish Teresa Ribera, who is currently the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Climate in Spain. Ribera’s candidacy holds weight as Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is seeking to balance gender representation within the Commission.
Denmark’s Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, along with Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen and Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, is expected to discuss Denmark’s candidate later this week. However, no official announcements have been made yet, and with a nomination deadline at the end of August, Dan Jørgensen might be at a disadvantage if the nomination comes late.
Ursula von der Leyen is navigating a complex political landscape, needing to balance the size of member countries, political affiliations, and gender representation in the composition of the Commissioner positions. Sweden has nominated Jessika Roswall, while Finland has put forward Henna Virkkunen. Kirkegaard believes that Jørgensen’s ministerial experience may not be sufficient to secure a prominent position in competition with other female Nordic candidates.
As a relatively small member of the EU, Denmark’s chances of securing a significant post similar to the influence Margrethe Vestager has held over the past decade could be impacted. Lykke Friis, director of the think tank Europe, and Professor Rebecca Adler-Nissen from the University of Copenhagen have stated that Denmark may be better positioned with a female candidate to achieve a key position.
Von der Leyen has announced that discussions with new candidates will commence from mid-August, with the deadline for candidate submissions set for August 30. The European Parliament must also approve the proposed candidates, which can be challenging as some candidates have previously been rejected. Upcoming hearings are scheduled for September and October, with the new Commission expected to be in place by November. Each of the 27 member states of the EU will continue to be represented by one European Commissioner as is customary.