Kolkata, India – Aditya Manaksia, a 43-year-old exporter of agricultural products from Kolkata, is anxiously watching the ongoing political unrest in Bangladesh, which began with protests over job distribution in July. This situation culminated in the ousting of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5. In the weeks that followed, more than 300 people have lost their lives, and massive property damage has been reported.

Earlier this year, Manaksia exported spices, coconuts, and pasta to Bangladesh, totaling $10,000, in hopes of a profitable business. “I had plans to expand my business there, but all my hopes have been shattered due to the political instability. I do not know what the future holds. We can only hope that the situation normalizes soon,” Manaksia told Al Jazeera.

Rajeev Goenka, who operates a clothing factory in Dhaka, is also severely affected by the situation. His factory produces about three million clothing items annually, but production has halted since July. “We are trying to reassure our European customers that we can meet deadlines, but I am not sure we can,” Goenka said. “We do not even know if banks in Bangladesh will issue Letters of Credit (LC), which are essential for cross-border trade.”

Trade relations between India and Bangladesh are strong, as Bangladesh ranks among the top ten export markets for India. In the last fiscal year, India exported goods such as textiles, tea, coffee, automotive parts, electricity, metals, and plastics valued at $11.1 billion, while importing finished clothing and leather products worth $1.8 billion. However, India’s exports have declined in recent years, partially due to an Indian ban on the export of basmati rice and Dhaka’s severe foreign currency shortage, which has constrained import capacity, according to Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative.

While many exporters are concerned, cotton traders are not necessarily in the same predicament. Bangladesh heavily relies on India for raw cotton for its garment industry, which has an export value of $47 billion. “We hope to export around 2.8 million bales of cotton globally, of which 2 million bales will be sent to Bangladesh alone,” said Atul Ganatra, president of the Cotton Association of India.

Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Exports Organisations, stated that conditions are slowly returning to normal across the border. “Truck traffic has resumed in some border areas, and the situation is expected to normalize soon,” he said.

However, the situation has created uncertainty for exporters of perishable goods, such as Kaustav Palit, who exports onions, ginger, and tamarind. “We deal with perishable items that have a limited shelf life. If our vehicles get stranded at the border, it could lead to significant losses, and we are extremely concerned about the situation,” Palit explained.

Small businesses in Kolkata are also impacted by the violence. Due to the close geographical ties and cultural similarities, West Bengal has a historical connection to Bangladesh. Many restaurants and hotels that depend on Bangladeshi tourists have experienced a drastic decline in business, affecting their financial stability.

“Our business is down by nearly 80 percent as tourists have stopped coming,” said Kingshuk Saha, who runs a restaurant serving Bangladeshi cuisine. “We want a stable government in Bangladesh to restore our business.”

With Indian visa centers closed indefinitely and a significant reduction in bus services between the two countries, many businesses are facing an uncertain future. “The situation is critical, but we are hopeful,” said Shah Alam, who is involved in automotive parts trading.