As Ukraine continues its military advances, the country has managed to leverage its strengths, including rapid movement, tactical innovation, and the ability to convert small successes into larger victories. Ukraine has also been effective in maximizing its limited resources, which has led to new methods in weapon usage that have caught Russian forces off guard and kept them on the defensive.
Both Russia and Ukraine extensively utilize drones for reconnaissance and attack purposes. However, Ukraine’s innovation lies in combining attack drones with electronic warfare units that jam the signals of Russian drones, effectively blinding them. This tactic has allowed Ukrainian drones to target positions and move forward with ground troops. Once they reach a specific location, the jammers are repositioned, and the process is repeated in a leapfrogging motion. This method enables Ukrainian forces to advance relatively intact while Russian military planners receive very little information regarding Ukrainian movements.
The Ukrainian strategy, combined with the use of small “sabotage” units designed to be highly mobile and penetrate deep into Russian lines to create maximum confusion, has bewildered the Russian high command. This has led to poor utilization of local units, often resulting in mass surrenders or destruction.
Russia has always made it clear that the use of foreign weapon systems on Russian territory will not be tolerated. Ukraine’s offensive against the Russian-controlled Crimea in late June, which destroyed parts of Russia’s deep-space network, utilized American-made ATACMS short-range missiles. This triggered a furious response from Russia, with official statements formally warning the United States.
There are now credible reports that British Challenger tanks have been deployed by Ukraine in the Kursk region. Should Western weapon systems have been used in Kursk, it may represent another “red line” for Russia. It is this gradual erosion of what is deemed unacceptable by Russia that poses the greatest danger. Soon or later, Russia will need to establish an actual red line and declare what severe consequences the West and/or Ukraine would face if that line were crossed.
If Russia’s red line is ignored, catastrophic consequences could arise for all parties involved, potentially leading to an escalation of the conflict. Currently, President Vladimir Putin has referred to Ukraine’s incursions as an “anti-terror” operation. If Ukraine were to gain a significantly stronger foothold, he would be compelled to declare it an invasion. This situation could activate Article 4 of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russian-led alliance of post-Soviet states. This article, akin to NATO’s Article 5, addresses collective security: if one member is attacked, all other members are obligated to assist.
NATO would have to intervene or witness Ukraine’s destruction, which could dramatically broaden the war into a general conflict between two blocs.