Kyiv, Ukraine – Nearly two years after a group of Uzbek students submitted a heartfelt appeal to their president, their fate remains uncertain. In October 2022, students from Kursk Medical University in western Russia recorded a video address to President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, in which they requested assistance. They reported that their studies were being affected by artillery strikes from Kyiv on nearby cities and the ongoing hostilities in the Ukrainian region of Sumy. “Please transfer us to medical schools in Uzbekistan,” one student pleaded.
Uzbek diplomats promised to assess the situation, but there have been no further reports regarding their fate, similar to Uzbekistan’s official response to one of the war’s boldest developments: Kyiv’s incursion into Kursk. Since August 6, Ukrainian forces have reportedly occupied several villages and captured Russian soldiers in an area exceeding 1,000 square kilometers.
Uzbekistan finds itself in a challenging position. According to the Collective Security Treaty (CST), which Tashkent has signed with Russia and neighboring countries Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Belarus, member states are obliged to support one another. Until now, only Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has commented on the Kursk attack, calling for an end to the conflict. Lukashenko also ordered a strengthened troop buildup along the Belarusian border with Ukraine. However, according to Ukrainian defense analysts, this is simply a “trick,” as actual troops have not reached the border.
Leaders from other CST member countries have remained silent on the Kursk effort and have not offered military aid to Russia. Experts believe that Moscow will not request military assistance from CST countries, as this would signal political weakness for President Putin.
The situation in Central Asia is complex. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus have adopted an “ostrich position,” where they have prohibited their citizens from fighting for either side and have pledged to uphold Western sanctions against Moscow. Despite this, businesses in former Soviet republics have found ways to profit by re-exporting dual-use goods, such as microchips, to Russia.
Leaders in the region have balanced their relations between Moscow, Beijing, and increasingly Ankara for years. However, this balancing act contrasts with public opinion, as the prevailing Russian media control promotes pro-Kremlin sentiments.
Putin has downplayed the seriousness of the incursion in Kursk, labeling it a “counter-terrorism operation” rather than a military action. Experts suggest that the Kremlin is attempting to downplay events in Kursk, and no one will think to express a clear stance as long as Russia’s political regime is not under threat.
Those who have survived such “operations” often have only grim memories to share. A Chechen refugee, Madina, spoke to Al Jazeera about the traumas she has endured during previous conflicts.
As the situation stands now, Uzbek students and many others in Central Asia face an uncertain future amidst the chaos resulting from the war in Ukraine.