The discussion surrounding Denmark’s declining birth rate has taken on a new dimension, as two economists challenge the concerns expressed by politicians. Economic professor and chief economist Carl-Johan Dalgaard argues that an increase in the birth rate does not necessarily improve Denmark’s public finances or its standard of living. In fact, he believes that a lower birth rate could enhance the individual citizen’s quality of life.

Dalgaard contends that although the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) might decrease with a smaller population, this does not mean that citizens will become poorer. He also points to environmental benefits stemming from a reduced population, noting that fewer people would lead to lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen, the leader of the Moderates (Moderaterne), has consistently urged Danes to have more children, labeling the declining birth rate as “the greatest crisis in our society.” He expresses concern that fewer children will result in a shortage of labor needed to sustain the welfare system, especially in elderly care.

However, Dalgaard dismisses these fears, and economist Mette Ejrnæs supports this perspective. They point out that resources will be redistributed as younger generations decrease. Additionally, advancements in technology and efficiencies will also contribute positively to the economy.

Gustav Elias Dahl from the Danish Trade Union Confederation (Arbejderbevægelsens Erhvervsråd) confirms in an analysis that a declining birth rate could actually alleviate what is referred to as the “welfare state dilemma” in Danish economics, where an increasing number of children and elderly individuals could lead to significant public deficits starting in the mid-2030s. Dahl believes that having fewer children will ultimately lead to public financial surpluses and richer citizens. He therefore challenges the Moderates’ stance that an increase in births is necessary to maintain a prosperous society. His analysis indicates the contrary – that fewer children may secure economic benefits for each individual citizen.

Monika Rubin, the political spokesperson for the Moderates, defends the party’s position by warning that a smaller population could harm Denmark’s business competitiveness and growth potential. She emphasizes the need to ensure sufficient labor supply.

The debate about the size of the population continues, but the economists’ message is clear: Increased financial support for childbirth is not necessarily beneficial for Denmark’s future.