Kyiv, Ukraine – Olena Dovzhenko, a 27-year-old fitness club manager, no longer feels disheartened when reading news about the war in Ukraine. For months, she felt demoralized by reports of bloody battles and the constant loss of cities and villages in eastern Ukraine. Now, she smiles when she reads or watches videos about Ukraine’s surprising incursion into the western Russian region of Kursk.
“We are kicking butt. In just a few days, we have captured more territory than the Russians have gained all year,” Dovzhenko told Al Jazeera while showing a map on her smartphone of areas in Kursk that have been seized since August 6. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asserted on Monday that Kyiv now controls 1,250 square kilometers in Kursk. Ukrainian forces have also targeted three bridges over the Seym River, which have been crucial for supplying Russian troops stationed along the border.
So far this year, Russia has captured a similar area in Ukraine, primarily in the Donbas region, after losing tens of thousands of soldiers sent to heavily fortified Ukrainian positions. Although no public opinion polls regarding the Kursk operation have been released yet, observers note that the morale among soldiers is “unexpectedly” high.
“The morale at the front line is simply colossal,” stated Mykhailo Zhirokhov, a military analyst from Chernihiv, to Al Jazeera. “This is unexpected to me because people are still fighting in Donbas, and theoretically, their lives have not become easier.”
While Kyiv’s success in Kursk does not negate Moscow’s progress in Donbas, where Russian forces are advancing towards the city of Pokrovsk, the situation appears grim for Ukrainian defenders. A police officer in Pokrovsk indicated, “We expect a nightmare.”
Politicians have labeled the Kursk offensive a “game changer.” “The Kursk operation is doing more for a peace agreement than a hundred peace summits combined,” said lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko in television statements on Sunday.
However, the Kursk operation has not led to a significant withdrawal of Russian forces from the crescent-shaped frontline stretching nearly 1,000 kilometers. “A political decision has clearly been made to continue fighting for what is genuinely important to Putin – Donbas,” noted Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher at the University of Bremen in Germany.
Nonetheless, Ukraine may have the opportunity to occupy three districts in western Kursk that are easier to defend with limited forces. “We are moving into areas to the north to possibly keep the Russians away from the fortifications we are building,” Mitrokhin said.
Ukrainian politicians and media are already referring to the captured areas as a “bargaining chip.” However, according to a Kyiv analyst, these areas are more than just potential trade-offs for Ukrainian territory currently held by Russia: “Russia has demonstrated its weakness,” said Igar Tyshkevich.
Despite the deployment of Belarusian forces and a lack of support from Moscow’s allies, the Kursk offensive has already played a multifaceted role in the war. It has thwarted Moscow’s plans to invade Sumy and created a “buffer zone” that weakens Russia’s offensive potential both there and in neighboring Kharkiv.
It has also revitalized Western efforts to support Kyiv, albeit to a limited extent. “We have a very positive international response, but not a decisive one, because they still do not allow us to use their [advanced] weapons to conduct strikes in Russia,” stated Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko.
The Kursk offensive also appears to reveal the growing mistrust that Russian President Vladimir Putin has in the military leadership. He has bypassed experienced generals to appoint his former bodyguard, Alexei Dyumin, as the head of the offensive, despite Dyumin having never commanded military units.
While Kremlin-controlled media claim that more volunteers want to fight in Kursk, some ordinary Russians appear confused and apathetic. “People are… astonished; the boss is a guest abroad,” said a Moscow resident anonymously, referring to Putin’s visit to Azerbaijan. “Everything is going according to plan, but who has seen this plan?”
The situation in Kursk continues to evolve, and the world is watching how this will affect the future of the war and the balance of power in Eastern Europe.