A new offensive by Ukraine has caught Russian forces in the Kursk region by surprise, creating a dilemma for the Kremlin. Despite reinforcements sent from Moscow, they have been unable to halt Ukraine’s progress during the second week of the offensive. This raises the question of whether Russia should redeploy several battalions from the war in Ukraine to defend its own territory or if new conscripts should be sent to the front lines.
Until now, Russia has kept its regular recruits at home, only sending contracted soldiers to the conflict. However, the recent offensive has threatened the delicate political balance that President Vladimir Putin has previously sought to maintain. In March 2022, Putin assured that conscripts would not participate in combat, responding to concerns from soldiers’ mothers.
Following the Ukrainian incursion in the Kursk area, mothers of active-duty soldiers have begun protests. Oksana Deeva, mother of a conscript, published a petition calling for soldiers to be returned from combat zones, which quickly garnered nearly 3,000 signatures. Apty Alaudinov, commander of a Chechen battalion, addressed the complaints from the soldiers’ mothers in a televised appearance, claiming that “No one will die who is not destined to die.” As pressure mounts, Putin has remained silent about the severity of the situation.
Research from the Institute for the Study of War highlights the political power of mothers’ organizations in Russia, which have previously been able to mobilize large social movements. Ukrainian commander Oleksandr Syrskyi shared information indicating that Ukraine has advanced up to 35 kilometers into Russia, gaining control over 1,293 square kilometers, which exceeds the 1,000 square kilometers captured the week before. Estimates suggest that Ukraine has seized more Russian territory in two weeks than Russia has achieved in Ukraine over the past eight months. Moreover, the largest Ukrainian advances have occurred while Russian forces have struggled for marginal gains in Eastern Ukraine.
Analysts point out that this offensive is an effort to offset Russia’s economic and numerical superiority through surprise and tactical ingenuity. The Ukrainian military has reportedly used American equipment, including what appears to be cluster bombs, to destroy bridges and cut off Russian logistical bases. Ukraine’s key allies, including the United States and Germany, are urged to maintain the flow of military aid and reevaluate restrictions on its use, particularly regarding military targets on Russian territory.
Putin’s choices in response to this situation could have far-reaching consequences, affecting not only the military situation but also internal politics in Russia, especially regarding the defense of national territory.