The ongoing deep strikes by Ukraine against Russian military targets and the recent three-week land offensive on Russian territory appear to be yielding both military and political results. Recent reports indicate that Russia has moved its aircraft away from the airfields near the Ukrainian border, and attacks with glide bombs inside Ukraine have reportedly decreased.
According to an anonymous American official speaking to Politico, “90 percent of the aircraft launching glide bombs” against Ukrainian positions have been redeployed back to Russia. An independent analysis from Frontelligence confirms that Russia has relocated many valuable assets away from the Ukrainian border between mid-June and mid-July. Ukrainian officials have also observed a noticeable decline in the use of Russian air support. Colonel Vitaly Sarantsev explained on a television broadcast that the recent offensive in Kursk has significantly reduced Russia’s air operations against northeast Ukraine, stating, “We felt relief in tactical air power. If we previously experienced 30 to 50 anti-aircraft missile launches a day in the Sumy region, the enemy yesterday used airstrikes twice, with four anti-aircraft missiles and 11 unspecified air missiles.”
In the eastern Donetsk region, in Chasiv Yar, there are also reports of a decrease in the use of glide bombs. The spokesperson for the Siversk Tactical Group, Vadym Mysnyk, stated, “This is a sign that we are degrading their air power and hitting their airfields, and we have pushed the enemy a bit away from the border.”
At the same time, there is increasing evidence that Russia is struggling to contain the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk, leading to redeployments of elite units for defense. It has been confirmed that elements from several Russian brigades, which previously fought in Kharkiv, have now been reassigned to engage in Kursk. Ukrainian authorities estimate that Russia has redirected around 30,000 soldiers from Ukraine to counter the Ukrainian offensive. If this figure is accurate, it represents a significant portion of the more than 700,000 soldiers Russia has in Ukraine.
Although Russia has maintained its focus on the offense against the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk, Ukrainian advancements in Kursk have predominantly increased. Foreign analysts have been divided on the reasoning behind the Kursk offensive; some view it as a way to distract Russian troops or a psychological recovery by taking the initiative.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also indicated that the offensive is a preventative measure to avoid a new invasion similar to that in Kharkiv in the north. Additionally, he seeks to compensate for the lack of long-range capabilities. Zelenskyy has repeatedly called upon the United States to allow Ukraine to use ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) long-range rocket artillery to strike airfields deep inside Russia. Currently, the U.S. only permits the use of its weapons within limited ranges to avoid drawing them into the conflict.
Meanwhile, the European Commission and the EU’s chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, have openly supported lifting restrictions on the use of long-range capabilities against Russian military targets. Despite Russia’s harsh rhetoric warning against such a decision, actual outcomes may suggest otherwise. According to Syrskii, Ukraine has occupied 1,294 square kilometers and taken control of 100 settlements in just three weeks of the offensive.
As part of its efforts, Ukraine has also introduced new domestic weaponry, including Palyanytsia, a large long-range rocket drone, which is believed to have destroyed a Russian ammunition depot. Zelenskyy has also announced that Ukraine has tested its first ballistic missile, Hrim-2, which could have a range of up to 700 kilometers. Although Ukrainian progress has slowed somewhat, the current situation indicates that both the balance of power and the dynamics of the conflict continue to evolve.