The far-right party Alternative for Germany (Alternative für Deutschland, AfD) appears poised to become the first far-right party to win a regional election since World War II, according to early exit poll results. The AfD is projected to secure 33.5 percent of the vote in the state of Thuringia, comfortably ahead of the conservative party, which garnered 24.5 percent, as reported by ZDF’s exit poll on Sunday. In the neighboring state of Saxony, the conservatives led with 32 percent, only 0.5 percentage points ahead of the AfD. The left-populist Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW), which, like the AfD, calls for stricter immigration controls and wishes to halt military aid to Ukraine, took third place in both states but performed significantly worse than previous polls had suggested.

With one year to go until Germany’s next national elections, the results appear to be punitive for Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition, although his Social Democrats seem to have surpassed the 5 percent threshold to remain in the state parliaments of both regions. In contrast, his coalition partners, the Greens (Die Grünen) and the business-friendly Free Democratic Party (Freie Demokratische Partei), appear less secure in both parliaments, which may signal further conflicts within Scholz’s already fragmented coalition government.

All parties, including BSW, have committed to not forming a coalition with the AfD, which they view as anti-democratic and extremist. The two eastern states of Thuringia and Saxony cast their votes during a voting period that took place just one week after a fatal knife attack that resulted in three deaths, sparking a heated debate about immigration in Germany.

Journalist Dominic Kane from Al Jazeera reported from Berlin, stating that “the party that wins has the moral authority to claim, ‘We represent East Germany,’ or at least a significant part of it.” He noted that some voters in these two states lived under communism just 35 years ago.

Saxony is the most populous of the former East German states and has been a conservative stronghold since reunification. Thuringia is more rural and is currently the only state governed by the far-left party The Left (Die Linke), which is the successor to East Germany’s ruling Communist Party.

After casting her vote in Erfurt, the capital of Thuringia, Sandra Pagel expressed her fears about an AfD victory, saying, “I am very nervous about what will happen today… because I think there is a very high risk that AfD will win, and that scares me. For my grandchildren and also for me.”

Founded in 2013 as an anti-euro group, the AfD has capitalized on the conflicting three-way coalition in Berlin to rise in the polls. In the June elections for the European Parliament, the party achieved a record 15.9 percent overall, performing particularly well in Eastern Germany, where it became the largest political force.

In a post on the social media platform X, AfD co-leader Alice Weidel urged voters to support the AfD to “change the future in Saxony and Thuringia, but also bring about a political turnaround across Germany.” Alongside the AfD, the new party BSW has also found a receptive audience in the eastern states with its criticism of the Berlin government and military aid to Ukraine.

Founded in January by prominent politician Sahra Wagenknecht after her departure from The Left, BSW has gained traction with a peaceful approach toward Russia and demands for a radical tightening of immigration policies. The AfD and BSW are expected to collectively achieve about 40-50 percent of the votes in the two states, compared to 23-27.5 percent nationally, clearly indicating the ongoing divide between East and West Germany more than 30 years after reunification.